{"id":35368,"date":"2024-10-11T12:02:11","date_gmt":"2024-10-11T16:02:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=35368"},"modified":"2024-10-18T09:04:23","modified_gmt":"2024-10-18T13:04:23","slug":"long-range-forecast-the-best-christmas-pageant-ever-heretic-kick-off-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-the-best-christmas-pageant-ever-heretic-kick-off-november\/","title":{"rendered":"LONG RANGE FORECAST: THE BEST CHRISTMAS PAGEANT EVER, HERETIC Kick Off November"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Long Range Forecast \u2014 November 8, 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A counterprogramming duo hits theaters on the weekend of November 8 – 10, one a family-friendly Christmas movie from some of the biggest names in faith-based filmmaking, the other an A24 horror movie with religious elements. With little else getting a wide release between November 8 and the November 22 one-two punch of Gladiator 2<\/em> and Moana 2<\/em>, decent word of mouth could draw audiences to The Best Christmas Pageant Ever<\/em> or Heretic<\/em> during chase weeks\u2014at the very least, the two should face little competition over opening weekend, when they will be up against the third weekend of Venom: The Last Dance<\/em> and the second weekend of Robert Zemeckis’s Here<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever<\/em> | Lionsgate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $7M – $12M<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It’s been a tough year for Lionsgate at the box office, with only one of their 2024 releases thus far (May’s The Strangers: Chapter 1<\/em>) opening above $10M and a pair of long-delayed films\u2014video game adaptation Borderlands<\/em> and Wonder<\/em> spin-off White Bird<\/em>\u2014failing to generate box office buzz; the former only spent one week in the top five, and the latter opened last weekend at spot number 7. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To end 2024 on a good note, Lionsgate has a solid contender in The Best Christmas Pageant Ever<\/em>, produced by Jon and Andrew Erwin. The duo, collectively known as the Erwin Brothers, are superstars in the faith-based space whose collaboration with Lionsgate has yielded such films as 2018’s I Can Only Imagine<\/em> ($17.1M domestic opening, $83.4M domestic total; released theatrically in collaboration with Roadside Attractions), 2021’s American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story<\/em> ($5.8M domestic opening, $26.5M domestic total), and 2023’s The Jesus Revolution<\/em> ($15.8M domestic opening, $52.1M domestic total). Though all of the Erwin Brothers-Lionsgate films don’t hit to that degree (see the aforementioned White Bird<\/em>, which opened to $1.5M), they don’t really need to, being modestly budgeted and boosted by grassroots marketing and audience goodwill accumulated by the Erwins. A film like February 2024’s Lionsgate release Ordinary Angels, <\/em>also produced by the Erwin Brothers, <\/em>can open to $6.1M, enjoy modest holds (-39% and -47% drops leading into weeks two and three), and land at a completely respectable $19.1M domestic total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ordinary Angel<\/em>s’ $6.1M domestic opening cume is in the range of what our forecasting panel expects for The Best Christmas Pageant Ever<\/em>, a family-friendly comedy\/drama based on a 1972 children’s book about six misfit children who sign up for the local Christmas nativity play. On board as director is Dallas Jenkins, who has certainly built up his own credibility in the faith-based space through his work as one of the key figures behind mega-hit The Chosen<\/em>, which started as a webseries and has since found considerable theatrical success as a series of event cinema releases<\/a>. The potential fly in the ointment for The Best Christmas Pageant Ever<\/em> is the following weekend’s release of Red One<\/em>, a Christmas action comedy starring Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans and released by Amazon\/MGM. Of the two, Red One<\/em> has far more star power and marketing muscle, and it casts a wider net in terms of audience. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever’<\/em>s appeal to a smaller, more dedicated audience could prove to be its saving grace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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