{"id":35699,"date":"2024-11-01T11:03:51","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T15:03:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=35699"},"modified":"2024-11-20T12:42:38","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T17:42:38","slug":"long-range-forecast-moana-2-building-blockbuster-buzz-in-pre-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-moana-2-building-blockbuster-buzz-in-pre-sales\/","title":{"rendered":"Long Range Forecast: MOANA 2 Building Blockbuster Buzz in Pre-Sales"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/subscribe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe to our&nbsp;<strong><em>FREE<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless src=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/e\/065f7c81\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-long-range-forecast-november-27-2024\">Long Range Forecast \u2014 November 27, 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-moana-2-walt-disney-pictures\"><em>Moana 2<\/em> | Walt Disney Pictures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-domestic-opening-weekend-range-5-day-120m-150m\">Domestic Opening Weekend Range (5-Day): $120M \u2013 $150M<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Disney is back to claim another Thanksgiving weekend with <em>Moana 2<\/em>, in theaters the Wednesday before the holiday and competing with the second weekend of Universal&#8217;s <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-universal-promises-a-wicked-thanksgiving-box-office\/\">Wicked Part 1<\/a><\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Though <em>Moana<\/em> ($248.7M domestic total) was only the fourth highest-grossing Disney animated film released in 2016\u2014trailing March&#8217;s <em>Zootopia<\/em> ($341.2M domestic total), April&#8217;s live action\/animation hybrid <em>The Jungle Book (<\/em>$364M domestic total<em>)<\/em>, and December&#8217;s <em>Finding Dory<\/em> ($486.2M domestic total)\u2014it arguably had the largest cultural impact of the set, largely propelled by its earworm-filled soundtrack (it was the fifth-best-selling album of the year in the U.S. and garnered an Oscar nomination for Best Original Song) and the ongoing popularity of its main character, now part of the lucrative &#8220;Disney princess&#8221; canon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It was popular enough for Disney to greenlight a live-action remake (slated for summer 2026) and a Disney+ TV sequel series&#8230;. and then, in February of this year, for Disney to announce that the series would be retooled into a movie and released theatrically some nine months later. With no reviews yet circulating, it&#8217;s hard to say to what extent <em>Moana 2<\/em>&#8216;s episodic origins can be seen in the final product&#8230; but, even if the film <em>should <\/em>lack a strong, cohesive central plotline, it should have no problem out-earning its predecessor, which dominated Thanksgiving weekend (to the tune of a $56.6M three-day domestic opening and a $82M five-day domestic opening) in 2016. Indeed, that&#8217;s become the norm among Disney animated titles, with 2019&#8217;s <em>Frozen 2<\/em> ($130.2M domestic opening, $477.3 domestic total), 2024&#8217;s <em>Inside Out 2<\/em> ($154.2M domestic opening, $652.9M domestic total), 2018&#8217;s <em>Incredibles 2 <\/em>($182.6M domestic opening, $608.5M domestic total), 2019&#8217;s<em> Toy Story 4 <\/em>($120.9M domestic opening, $434M domestic total), 2016&#8217;s <em>Finding Dory<\/em> ($135M domestic opening, $486.2M domestic total), and 2018&#8217;s <em>Ralph Breaks the Internet<\/em> ($56.2M domestic opening, $201M domestic total) all out-earning earlier films in their respective series in the domestic market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disney could certainly use a win for its Walt Disney Animation Studios division. Following the release of 2019&#8217;s <em>Frozen 2<\/em> the weekend before<em> <\/em>Thanksgiving, no Walt Disney Animation release has earned over $100M domestically. Of those, three also came out the Wednesday before Thanksgiving: 2021&#8217;s <em>Encanto<\/em> ($27.2M three-day domestic opening, $40.5M five-day domestic opening, $96M domestic total), 2022&#8217;s <em>Strange World<\/em> ($12.1M three-day domestic opening, $18.8M five-day domestic opening, $37.9M domestic total), and last year&#8217;s <em>Wish<\/em> ($19.6M three-day domestic opening, $31.6M five-day domestic opening, $63.9M total). (The other, March 2021&#8217;s <em>Raya and the Last Dragon<\/em>, opened day-and-date in theaters and on Disney+, opening to $8.5M and topping out at $54.7M domestically).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/moana-2-surpasses-inside-out-2-as-fandangos-best-first-day-animated-ticket-pre-seller-of-2024\/\">Strong pre-sales<\/a> point the way towards a possible $150M-plus five-day opening weekend for <em>Moana 2<\/em>, which benefits from a lack of widely released family titles since late September&#8217;s <em>The Wild Robot<\/em> ($35.7M domestic opening) and <em>Transformers One<\/em> ($24.6M domestic opening). <em>Moana 2<\/em> will need north of $652.9M over its total run to unseat this year&#8217;s <em>Inside Out 2<\/em> as the highest-grossing animated film of all time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Moana 2 | Official Trailer\" width=\"798\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/hDZ7y8RP5HE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tracking-updates-as-of-11-1\">Tracking Updates [as of 11\/1]<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Release Date<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Title<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Opening Weekend Range<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Distributor<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/1\/24<\/td><td><em>Here<\/em><\/td><td>$3 \u2013 $7M<\/td><td>Sony<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/8\/24<\/td><td><em>The Best Christmas Pageant Ever<\/em><\/td><td>$6 \u2013 $12M<\/td><td>Lionsgate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/8\/24<\/td><td><em>Heretic<\/em><\/td><td>$8 \u2013 $12M<\/td><td>A24<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/15\/24<\/td><td><em>Red One<\/em><\/td><td>$20 &#8211; $40M<\/td><td>MGM \/ Amazon<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/22\/24<\/td><td><em>Gladiator II<\/em><\/td><td>$60 &#8211; $80M<\/td><td>Paramount<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/22\/24<\/td><td><em>Wicked Part 1<\/em><\/td><td>$100 &#8211; $130M<\/td><td>Universal<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Boxoffice Pro is the world\u2019s leading reference in box office forecasts and reports, reaching 98% of decision-makers in theatrical exhibition.&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Our complete forecasting reports are updated weekly by our Boxoffice Forecasting Panel, which consists of industry professionals and leading executives representing exhibition, distribution, and premium large-format vendors. Full reports are available to all active National Association of Theatre Owners members and select industry clients.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>To learn how to receive our complete forecasting solutions, please get in touch with&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:sales@boxoffice.com\">sales@boxoffice.com<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>For press inquiries, please contact <a href=\"mailto:press@boxoffice.com\">press@boxoffice.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Subscribe to our&nbsp;FREE&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news. Long Range Forecast \u2014 November 27, 2024 Moana 2 | Walt Disney Pictures Domestic Opening Weekend Range (5-Day): $120M \u2013 $150M Disney is back to claim another Thanksgiving weekend with Moana 2, in theaters the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":35701,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2024-11-01T15:04:02Z","apple_news_api_id":"88e94162-3803-4be9-a5d7-2c87933e4c58","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2024-11-01T16:04:15Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAQ==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AiOlBYjgDS-ml1yyHkz5MWA","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasts-tracking","category-numbers"],"apple_news_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35699","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35699"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35699\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35701"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}