{"id":35895,"date":"2024-11-15T16:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-15T21:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=35895"},"modified":"2024-11-20T12:41:17","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T17:41:17","slug":"long-range-forecast-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-rides-into-cinemas-this-december","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-rides-into-cinemas-this-december\/","title":{"rendered":"Long Range Forecast: LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM Rides into Cinemas This December"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/subscribe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe to our&nbsp;<strong><em>FREE<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-transistor wp-block-embed-transistor\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Amazon\/MGM\u2019s RED ONE to Serve as the Appetizer for a Thanksgiving Box Office Feast\" width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/e\/7e3e90f4#?secret=T9eNcdnwEs\" data-secret=\"T9eNcdnwEs\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-long-range-forecast-december-13-2024\">Long Range Forecast \u2014 December 13, 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-warner-bros-pictures\"><em>Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim<\/em> | Warner Bros. Pictures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-domestic-opening-weekend-range-10m-25m\">Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M \u2013 $25M<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>An absolute box office behemoth over the first few years of the aughts, the <em>Lord of the Rings<\/em> franchise returns to theaters this December with the animated <em>Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim<\/em>, helmed by acclaimed anime director Kenji Kamiyama. Forecasts are incredibly volatile here until pre-sales and marketing data give insight into how appealing <em>War of the Rohirrim<\/em> could (or could not) be outside the <em>Lord of the Rings<\/em> faithful. Opening in a crowded holiday season also presents its challenges, as the franchise is not as fresh with modern audiences as it once was.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Rohirrim<\/em>, like the six previous theatrically released films in the <em>Rings<\/em> franchise, hits theaters in mid-December; however, grosses on this animated endeavor are expected by our forecasting panel to be well below anything from the <em>Lord of the Rings <\/em>or <em>Hobbit<\/em> trilogies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Between 2001 and 2003, the <em>Lord of the Rings<\/em> franchise dominated the December box office, with <em>The Fellowship of the Ring, The Two Towers<\/em>, and <em>The Return of the King <\/em>coming out back-to-back-to-back across three consecutive years; each film was either the first- (<em>Return of the King<\/em>) or second- (<em>Fellowship <\/em>and<em> Two Towers<\/em>) highest grossing film of their respective year, and <em>Return of the King <\/em>cleaned up at the 2024 Oscars in what served as a victory lap for a then-omnipresent cultural phenomena.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nine years after <em>Return of the King, <\/em>Warner Bros. and director Peter Jackson brought the world of J.R.R. Tolkien back to theaters with an adaptation of <em>The Lord of the Rings<\/em> prequel <em>The Hobbit<\/em>, stretched out across three movies despite the source material clearly not having enough plot to justify a trilogy. (Jackson initially wanted to make two <em>Hobbit<\/em> films only.) While the <em>Rings<\/em> movies enjoyed higher domestic grosses with each subsequent entry, the <em>Hobbit<\/em> movies earned less each time. Though the latter trilogy was by no means a financial disaster for Warner Bros.\u2014particularly worldwide, where it grossed a combined $2.9B\u2014the <em>Hobbit <\/em>films failed to achieve anything close to the critical acclaim and cultural relevance of the earlier trilogy, which is still a reliable theatrical earner when occasionally re-released in an event cinema capacity by Fathom Events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><\/td><td>Release Date<\/td><td>Domestic Opening<\/td><td>Domestic Total<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring<\/em><\/td><td>12\/19\/01<\/td><td>$47.2M<\/td><td>$318.6M<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers<\/em><\/td><td>12\/18\/02<\/td><td>$62M<\/td><td>$345.1M<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King<\/em><\/td><td>12\/17\/03<\/td><td>$72.6M<\/td><td>$381.4M<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey<\/em><\/td><td>12\/14\/12<\/td><td>$84.6M<\/td><td>$303M<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug<\/em><\/td><td>12\/13\/13<\/td><td>$73.6M<\/td><td>$258.2M<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies<\/em><\/td><td>12\/17\/14<\/td><td>$54.7M<\/td><td>$255.1M<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In the ten years since the book was closed on the <em>Hobbit<\/em> trilogy, the extent to which casual <em>Lord of the Rings<\/em> fans\u2014those who were fans of the movies but never slogged through Tolkien&#8217;s <em>The Silmarillion<\/em>, say\u2014are interested in a new film set in that universe. The matter of general audience interest is an even bigger question mark. Though Amazon MGM Studios is two seasons into the planned five-season run of Amazon Prime&#8217;s streaming series <em>The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power<\/em>, it remains to be seen whether that series will drive interest in <em>Rohirrim<\/em> to any significant degree, as the two don&#8217;t share a common cast of characters, a time period, or even a medium of production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The War of the Rohirrim<\/em> being an animated film makes it difficult to find reliable comps. Other franchises have made the jump from live-action to animation, but they usually do so while keeping the same characters from previous adaptations. (See: the <em>Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles<\/em> and <em>Transformers<\/em> franchises.) In September of this year, animated prequel <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/weekend-box-office-beetlejuice-beetlejuice-reigns-as-transformers-one-rolls-out-to-2\/\">Transformers One<\/a> <\/em>opened to $24.6M, which is in line with our <em>Rohirrim<\/em> forecast. But <em>Rohirrim<\/em> has some hurdles that<em> Transformers One<\/em> didn&#8217;t:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The aforementioned ten-year gap since the last <em>Lord of the Rings <\/em>movie; in the last ten years, three <em>Transformers<\/em> movies have hit theaters<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The majority of the <em>Rohirrim<\/em> characters being new to the franchise<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A PG-13 rating that reflects ambiguity as to the age range of the intended audience. (Only one PG-13 movie, <em>The Simpsons Movie<\/em>, is in the top hundred highest-grossing animated films of all time.)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Transformers One<\/em> came out in the middle of a quiet September, while <em>Rohirrim<\/em> will face stiff competition from holdovers<a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-universal-promises-a-wicked-thanksgiving-box-office\/\"> <em>Wicked Part 1<\/em> <\/a>and<a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-moana-2-building-blockbuster-buzz-in-pre-sales\/\"> <em>Moana 2<\/em><\/a>, plus later December releases <em>Sonic the Hedgehog 3<\/em> and <em>Mufasa: The Lion King<\/em>. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim | Official Trailer\" width=\"798\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/gCUg6Td5fgQ?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tracking-updates-as-of-11-15\">Tracking Updates [as of 11\/15]<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Release Date<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Title<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Opening Weekend Range<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Distributor<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/15\/24<\/td><td><em>Red One<\/em><\/td><td>$20 &#8211; $30M<\/td><td>MGM \/ Amazon<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/22\/24<\/td><td><em>Gladiator II<\/em><\/td><td>$60 &#8211; $80M<\/td><td>Paramount<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/22\/24<\/td><td><em>Wicked Part 1<\/em><\/td><td>$110 &#8211; $140M<\/td><td>Universal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/27\/24<\/td><td><em>Moana 2<\/em><\/td><td>$120 &#8211; $150M (5-day)<\/td><td>Disney<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Subscribe to our&nbsp;FREE&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news. Long Range Forecast \u2014 December 13, 2024 Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim | Warner Bros. Pictures Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M \u2013 $25M An absolute box office behemoth over the first [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":35919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2024-11-20T17:41:22Z","apple_news_api_id":"6d1478b9-a4aa-4043-85e0-a87135e9f793","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2024-11-20T17:41:22Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AbRR4uaSqQEOF4KhxNen3kw","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,25],"tags":[5640],"class_list":["post-35895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasts-tracking","category-numbers","tag-the-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim"],"apple_news_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35895"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35895\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}