{"id":37409,"date":"2025-03-07T13:29:48","date_gmt":"2025-03-07T18:29:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=37409"},"modified":"2025-03-13T16:36:14","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T20:36:14","slug":"long-range-forecast-a-minecraft-movie-aims-for-blockbuster-numbers-to-kick-off-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-a-minecraft-movie-aims-for-blockbuster-numbers-to-kick-off-april\/","title":{"rendered":"Long Range Forecast: A MINECRAFT MOVIE Aims for Blockbuster Numbers to Kick Off April"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/subscribe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe to our&nbsp;<strong><em>FREE<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Oscars Recap &amp; March Preview | Shankweiler&#039;s Drive-In Theatre\" width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/e\/dcc08bfa#?secret=mN5dYCErDZ\" data-secret=\"mN5dYCErDZ\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-long-range-forecast-april-4-2025\">Long Range Forecast \u2014 April 4, 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-minecraft-movie-warner-bros\"><em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em> | Warner Bros.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-domestic-opening-weekend-range-55m-75m\">Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $55M \u2013 $75M<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The immensely popular Minecraft video game franchise  finds it way to the big screen this April with <em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em>, directed by Jared Hess (<em>Napoleon Dynamite<\/em>,<em> Nacho Libre<\/em>) and starring Jack Black and Jason Momoa. The pair are strong presences, and the movie&#8217;s fish-out-of water concept (people from the normal world accidentally get into the Minecraft world, have to save it from destruction) allows them to lean into their comedic talents, much as Black did in 2017&#8217;s <em>Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle<\/em> (36.1M domestic opening, $404.5M domestic total) and 2019&#8217;s <em>Jumanji: The Next Level <\/em>($59.2M domestic opening, $320.3M domestic total).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The video game film adaptation, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/video-game-movies-sonic-hedgehog-resident-evil-mortal-kombat-box-office-history\/\">at one point a seemingly impossible nut to crack<\/a>, has seen a definite upswing over the last handful of years as studios began to lean into the nostalgia factor and cross-generational appeal of some of the medium&#8217;s most classic properties. Of the top ten highest-grossing video game adaptations, the top seven are from 2019 or later, with 2023&#8217;s <em>The Super Mario Bros. Movie<\/em> ($146.3M domestic opening, $574.9M domestic total) earning its place at the top of the list <a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/weekend-box-office-super-mario-bros-movie\/\">after only five days in cinemas<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two years (plus one day) after <em>The Super Mario Bros. Movie <\/em>opened domestically, <em>A Minecraft Movie <\/em>vies for its place in the video game movie top ten. In addition to from <em>The Super Mario Bros. Movie<\/em>, the first weekend of April served well for 2022 release <em>Sonic the Hedgehog 2<\/em> ($190.8 domestic total), which had the highest opening of the <em>Sonic<\/em> film franchise to-date with $72.1M. Our forecasting panel predicts that <em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em>&#8216;s opening weekend will fall somewhere between <em>Sonic the Hedgehog 2<\/em> and, on the lower end, 2019&#8217;s <em>Pok\u00e9mon: Detective Pikachu<\/em> ($54.3M domestic opening, $144.1M domestic total), which like <em>A Minecraft Movie <\/em>was distributed by Warner Bros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In terms of getting butts in seats, <em>A Minecraft Movie <\/em>presents some challenges that the <em>Super Mario<\/em>, <em>Sonic<\/em>, and <em>Pok\u00e9mon<\/em> movies didn&#8217;t really have to deal with. As a &#8220;sandbox game,&#8221; <em>Minecraft<\/em> encourages its users to explore and create rather than leading them through a series of pre-determined plots, meaning the screenwriters didn&#8217;t have already-established story elements (like dueling in <em>Pok\u00e9mon<\/em>) or a familiar roster of characters (it&#8217;s-a me, Mario!) to pull from. <em>Minecraft<\/em> is also on the newer side compared to its video game movie brethren. Between them, the <em>Super Mario Bros.<\/em>, <em>Sonic<\/em>, and <em>Pok\u00e9mon<\/em> franchises have a combined 103 years of lore for movies to pull from (and nostalgic fans to cater to), whereas <em>Minecraft<\/em> has only been around since 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As an adaptation of a then-relatively recent popular game, the best point of comparison for <em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em> is 2016&#8217;s <em>The Angry Birds Movie<\/em> ($38.1M domestic opening, $107.5M domestic total), which came out seven years after the debut of the game it&#8217;s based on (compared to <em>Minecraft<\/em>&#8216;s 14). But <em>Minecraft<\/em> has a clearer box office runway. It has to compete with holdover traffic from the previous month&#8217;s release of a classic Disney reimagining (<em>Disney&#8217;s Snow White<\/em>) and an MCU title (<em>Captain America: Brave New World<\/em>), just as <em>The Angry Birds Movie<\/em> was up against chase weeks for <em>The Jungle Book <\/em>and <em>Captain America: Civil War<\/em>. However, <em>The Angry Birds<\/em> Movie had to compete with the three other family-targeted wide releases (<em>Alice Through the Looking Glass<\/em>, <em>Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows<\/em>, <em>Finding Dory<\/em>) and one video game adaptation (<em>Warcraft<\/em>) that came out over the subsequent four weeks, whereas the month after <em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em>&#8216;s release sees only A24&#8217;s <em>The Legend of Ochi<\/em> gunning for the family audience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" id=\"h-top-10-highest-grossing-video-game-adaptations-domestic\">Top 10 Highest-Grossing Video Game Adaptations, Domestic<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Release Date<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Title<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Opening Weekend<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Domestic Total<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Distributor<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4\/5\/23<\/td><td><em>The Super Mario Bros. Movie<\/em><\/td><td>$146.3M<\/td><td>$574.9M<\/td><td>Universal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12\/20\/24<\/td><td><em>Sonic the Hedgehog 3<\/em><\/td><td>$60.1M<\/td><td><\/td><td>Paramount<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4\/8\/22<\/td><td><em>Sonic the Hedgehog 2<\/em><\/td><td>$72.1M<\/td><td>$190.8M<\/td><td>Paramount<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2\/18\/22<\/td><td><em>Uncharted<\/em><\/td><td>$44M<\/td><td>$148.6M<\/td><td>Sony<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2\/14\/20<\/td><td><em>Sonic the Hedgehog<\/em><\/td><td>$58M<\/td><td>$148.9M<\/td><td>Paramount<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5\/10\/19<\/td><td><em>Pok\u00e9mon: Detective Pikachu<\/em><\/td><td>$54.3M<\/td><td>$144.1M<\/td><td>Warner Bros.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10\/27\/23<\/td><td><em>Five Nights at Freddy&#8217;s<\/em><\/td><td>$80M<\/td><td>$137.2M<\/td><td>Universal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6\/15\/01<\/td><td><em>Lara Croft: Tomb Raider<\/em><\/td><td>$47.7M<\/td><td>$131.1M<\/td><td>Paramount<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5\/20\/16<\/td><td><em>The Angry Birds Movie<\/em><\/td><td>$38.1M<\/td><td>$107.5M<\/td><td>Sony<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4\/11\/18<\/td><td><em>Rampage<\/em><\/td><td>$35.7M<\/td><td>$101M<\/td><td>Warner Bros.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"A Minecraft Movie | Final Trailer\" width=\"798\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/8B1EtVPBSMw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" id=\"h-tracking-updates-as-of-march-7\">Tracking Updates [as of March 7]<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Release Date<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Title<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Opening Weekend Range<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Distributor<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/7<\/td><td><em>Mickey 17<\/em><\/td><td>$12M &#8211; $16M<\/td><td>Warner Bros.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/14<\/td><td><em>Opus<\/em><\/td><td>$5M &#8211; $8M<\/td><td>A24<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/14<\/td><td><em>Black Bag<\/em><\/td><td>$6M &#8211; $10M<\/td><td>Focus Features<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/14<\/td><td><em>Novocaine<\/em><\/td><td>$6M &#8211; $10M<\/td><td>Paramount Pictures<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/21<\/td><td><em>Alto Knights<\/em><\/td><td>$4M &#8211; $7M<\/td><td>Warner Bros.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/21<\/td><td><em>Disney&#8217;s Snow White<\/em><\/td><td>$60M &#8211; $70M<\/td><td>Disney<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/28<\/td><td><em>A Working Man<\/em><\/td><td>$12M &#8211; $18M<\/td><td>Amazon\/MGM<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/28<\/td><td><em>The Woman in the Yard<\/em><\/td><td>$8M &#8211; $12M<\/td><td>Universal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/28<\/td><td><em>Death of a Unicorn<\/em><\/td><td>$8M &#8211; $12M<\/td><td>A24<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Subscribe to our&nbsp;FREE&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news. Long Range Forecast \u2014 April 4, 2025 A Minecraft Movie | Warner Bros. Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $55M \u2013 $75M The immensely popular Minecraft video game franchise finds it way to the big screen this [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":37472,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2025-03-07T18:30:04Z","apple_news_api_id":"87af24c6-38d3-42be-a63c-b3bfbe1645f4","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2025-03-07T18:30:15Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/Ah68kxjjTQr6mPLO_vhZF9A","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":["https:\/\/news-api.apple.com\/sections\/dfac7ee9-acf9-449e-b214-8115882b64d6"],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,25],"tags":[5705,3503,5704],"class_list":["post-37409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasts-tracking","category-numbers","tag-a-minecraft-movie","tag-video-game-adaptations","tag-video-game-movies"],"apple_news_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37409"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37409\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37472"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}