{"id":37566,"date":"2025-03-14T12:05:39","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T16:05:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=37566"},"modified":"2025-03-19T13:55:24","modified_gmt":"2025-03-19T17:55:24","slug":"long-range-forecast-warfare-king-of-kings-drop-the-amateur-give-counter-programming-options-to-mid-april-moviegoers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-warfare-king-of-kings-drop-the-amateur-give-counter-programming-options-to-mid-april-moviegoers\/","title":{"rendered":"Long Range Forecast: WARFARE, KING OF KINGS, DROP, THE AMATEUR Give Counter-Programming Options to Mid-April Moviegoers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/subscribe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe to our&nbsp;<strong><em>FREE<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"UKCA 2025 Conference Preview | &#039;Novocaine&#039; Directors Dan Berk and Robert Olsen\" width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/e\/09dd1555#?secret=ntCKRIKLnj\" data-secret=\"ntCKRIKLnj\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-long-range-forecast-april-11-2025\">Long Range Forecast \u2014 April 11, 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-warfare-a24\"><em>Warfare<\/em> | A24<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-domestic-opening-weekend-range-12m-18m\">Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $12M \u2013 $18M<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Alex Garland teams up with his <em>Civil War<\/em> collaborator, Ray Mendoza, as a writer-director duo in this gritty drama based on a Navy SEAL mission into insurgent territory. The top domestic grosser for Garland as director and the second-highest for A24, 2024&#8217;s <em>Civil War <\/em>($25.5 domestic debut, $68.7M domestic total)<em> <\/em>came out on the same weekend as <em>Warfare<\/em> and appears to cover much of the same thematic ground. That said, <em>Civil War<\/em> has several A-listers in its cast (Kirsten Dunst, Nick Offerman), giving it a draw among general audiences that <em>Warfare<\/em>\u2014with its cast of up-and-comers, including Michael Gandolfini, Joseph Quinn, Charles Melton, and Will Poulter\u2014may not benefit from. Other films about war from a soldier&#8217;s POV to hit theaters over the last decade include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>13 Hours<\/em> (2016): $16.1M domestic opening, $52.8M domestic total<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Hacksaw Ridge<\/em> (2016): $15.1M domestic opening, $67.2M domestic total<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Dunkirk<\/em> (2017): $50.5M domestic opening, $189.7M domestic total<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>12 Strong<\/em> (2018): $15.8M domestic opening, $45.8 domestic total<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>1917<\/em> (2019): $575,216 domestic opening (platform release), $159.2M domestic total<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Warfare | Official Trailer HD | A24\" width=\"798\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/JER0Fkyy3tw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-king-of-kings-angel-studios\"><em>The King of Kings<\/em> | Angel Studios<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-domestic-opening-weekend-range-8m-12m\">Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $8M \u2013 $12M<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>An animated faith-based title rooted in the writings of Charles Dickens, Angel Studios&#8217; <em>The King of Kings<\/em> is hoping to connect with religious family audiences over the Easter holiday. Though Angel Studios has proven its ability to activate the faith-based crowd with films like <em>Homestead<\/em> ($6M domestic opening, $20.8M domestic total), <em>Cabrini<\/em> ($7.1M domestic opening, $19.5M domestic total), and the smash hit <em>Sound of Freedom <\/em>($19.6M domestic opening, $184.1M domestic total), none of its films released to-date have been animated, making <em>The King of Kings<\/em> difficult to find comps for while itself serving as an important early indicator for the performance of Angel Studios&#8217; animated musical <em>David<\/em>, out this November. Outside of the Angel Studios universe, the animated faith-based film <em>The Star<\/em>, distributed by Sony, opened in November 2017 to $9.8M, staying in theaters through the holiday season and racking up $40.8M domestically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The King Of Kings | Official Trailer | In theaters April 11 | Angel Studios\" width=\"798\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/HDhet3EVRac?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-drop-universal\"><em>Drop<\/em> | Universal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-domestic-opening-weekend-range-10m-15m\">Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M \u2013 $15M<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Drop<\/em> is the third film out this year so far from horror powerhouse Blumhouse, following January&#8217;s <em>Wolf Man<\/em> ($10.8M domestic opening, $20.7M domestic total) and <em>The Woman in the Yard<\/em>, out later this month. (Read our long range forecast <a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-a-working-man-the-woman-in-the-yard-death-of-a-unicorn-close-out-march\/\">here<\/a>.) That film&#8217;s opening will give us a better sense of how the 2025 horror market is shaping up; for now, points of comparison for <em>Drop<\/em> include previous April Blumhouse releases <em>Truth or Dare<\/em> ($18.6M domestic opening, $41.4M domestic total) and <em>Unfriended<\/em> ($15.8M domestic opening, $32.4M domestic total). <em>Unfriended<\/em>, like <em>Drop<\/em>, has a high-concept hook that involves modern technology; other recent releases to fall into that category include 2018&#8217;s <em>Unfriended: Dark Web<\/em> ($3.6M domestic opening, $8.8M domestic total) and 2016&#8217;s <em>Nerve<\/em> ($9.4M domestic opening, $38.5M domestic total).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"DROP Trailer (2025)\" width=\"798\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/jlbRuMZyDts?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-amateur-disney-20th-century-studios\"><em>The Amateur<\/em> | Disney \/ 20th Century Studios<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-domestic-opening-weekend-range-10m-15m-0\">Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M \u2013 $15M<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Rami Malek leads an all-star cast that includes Rachel Brosnahan, Laurence Fishburne, and Caitriona Balfe in CIA thriller <em>The Amateur<\/em>, which could prove a modest adult play when it hits theaters in mid-April. Co-writer Gary Spinelli previously penned the 2017 CIA thriller <em>American Made <\/em>($16.7M domestic opening, $51.3M domestic total), starring Tom Cruise. Other comps include nerd-turned-killer crime thriller <em>The Accountant<\/em> ($24.7M domestic opening, $86.2M domestic total), the sequel to which hits theaters two weeks after <em>The Amateur<\/em>; <em>American Assassin<\/em> ($14.8M domestic total, $36.2M domestic total), like <em>The Amateur<\/em> about a man avenging his significant other via spy hijinks; and the Jennifer Lawrence-starring spy thriller <em>Red Sparrow<\/em> ($16.8M domestic opening, $46.8M domestic total).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The Amateur | Official Trailer\" width=\"798\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/DCWcK4c-F8Q?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-tracking-updates-as-of-march-7\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Tracking Updates [as of March 14]<\/h3>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Release Date<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Title<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Opening Weekend Range<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Distributor<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/14<\/td><td><em>The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie<\/em><\/td><td>$3M &#8211; $5M<\/td><td>Ketchup Entertainment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/14<\/td><td><em>Opus<\/em><\/td><td>$4M &#8211; $6M<\/td><td>A24<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/14<\/td><td><em>Black Bag<\/em><\/td><td>$6M &#8211; $8M<\/td><td>Focus Features<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/14<\/td><td><em>Novocaine<\/em><\/td><td>$7M &#8211; $10M<\/td><td>Paramount Pictures<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/21<\/td><td><em>The Alto Knights<\/em><\/td><td>$4M &#8211; $6M<\/td><td>Warner Bros.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/21<\/td><td><em>Disney&#8217;s Snow White<\/em><\/td><td>$60M &#8211; $70M<\/td><td>Disney<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/28<\/td><td><em>A Working Man<\/em><\/td><td>$10M &#8211; $15M<\/td><td>Amazon\/MGM<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/28<\/td><td><em>The Woman in the Yard<\/em><\/td><td>$6M &#8211; $12M<\/td><td>Universal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/28<\/td><td><em>Death of a Unicorn<\/em><\/td><td>$10M &#8211; $15M<\/td><td>A24<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4\/4<\/td><td><em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em><\/td><td>$60M &#8211; $80M<\/td><td>Warner Bros.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Subscribe to our&nbsp;FREE&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news. Long Range Forecast \u2014 April 11, 2025 Warfare | A24 Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $12M \u2013 $18M Alex Garland teams up with his Civil War collaborator, Ray Mendoza, as a writer-director duo in this gritty [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":37574,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2025-03-14T16:06:21Z","apple_news_api_id":"3597d002-5603-4212-9687-aec87fbda13d","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2025-03-14T16:06:40Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/ANZfQAlYDQhKWh67If72hPQ","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":["https:\/\/news-api.apple.com\/sections\/dfac7ee9-acf9-449e-b214-8115882b64d6"],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[5538,5711,5712,5713],"class_list":["post-37566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasts-tracking","tag-drop","tag-king-of-kings","tag-the-amateur","tag-warfare"],"apple_news_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37566"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37566\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37574"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}