{"id":38504,"date":"2025-04-25T10:05:02","date_gmt":"2025-04-25T14:05:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=38504"},"modified":"2025-04-30T13:31:41","modified_gmt":"2025-04-30T17:31:41","slug":"long-range-forecast-paramount-looks-for-memorial-day-magic-with-mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-paramount-looks-for-memorial-day-magic-with-mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning\/","title":{"rendered":"Long Range Forecast: Paramount Looks for Memorial Day Magic With MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE &#8211; THE FINAL RECKONING"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/subscribe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe to our&nbsp;<strong><em>FREE<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless src=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/e\/6b3eecba\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-long-range-forecast-may-23-2025\">Long Range Forecast \u2014 May 23, 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-paramount\"><em>Mission: Impossible &#8211; The Final Reckoning<\/em> | Paramount<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-domestic-opening-weekend-range-70m-80m-3-day-90m-100m-4-day\">Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $70M \u2013 $80M (3-Day); $90M &#8211; $100M (4-Day)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Ethan Hunt and company return to theaters over Memorial Day weekend in <em>Mission: Impossible &#8211; The Final Reckoning<\/em>\u2014formerly titled <em>Mission: Impossible &#8211; Dead Reckoning Part Two<\/em>\u2014the eighth film in the <em>M:I <\/em>franchise. <em>Dead Reckoning Part One <\/em>represented a dip in form for the normally reliable franchise, failing to crack $200M domestically, but the new film&#8217;s retitling could give it a boost in the minds of summer moviegoers hungry for some standalone action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The Final Reckoning <\/em>is the first<em> M:I<\/em> film to come out over Memorial Day weekend in 25 years, following in the steps of <em>Mission: Impossible 2<\/em> ($215.4M domestic total), which opened to a three-day total of $57.8M and a four-day total of $70.8M. More recently, the franchise has staked its claim in the latter half of July, opening to $55.5M (2015&#8217;s <em>Rogue Nation<\/em>), $61.2M (2018&#8217;s <em>Fallout<\/em>), and $54.6M (2023&#8217;s <em>Dead Reckoning<\/em>). Lacking serious opening weekend competition, each of those three films easily debuted at number one. Though they all had roughly similar second-weekend drops (-48.7% for <em>Rogue Nation<\/em>, -42.3% for <em>Fallout<\/em>, -45.1% for <em>Dead Reckoning<\/em>), <em>Dead Reckoning <\/em>was quickly swallowed up at the box office during chase weeks, pushed down to spot number four in its second weekend by the blockbuster debuts of <em>Barbie<\/em> and <em>Oppenheimer<\/em> as well as the word-of-mouth behemoth <em>Sound of Freedom<\/em>, which came out a week earlier than <em>Dead Reckoning<\/em> and by week three (<em>Dead Reckoning<\/em>&#8216;s week two) was already outgrossing it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Topping out at $172.6M domestically, compared to <em>Fallout<\/em>&#8216;s $220M and <em>Rogue Nation<\/em>&#8216;s $195M, <em>Dead Reckoning<\/em> can&#8217;t be said to have drastically underperformed. Even so, with the number of major tentpoles coming out this July (including <em>Jurassic World: Rebirth<\/em>, <em>Superman<\/em>, and <em>The Fantastic Four: First Steps<\/em>), a release date closer to the beginning of summer\u2014when <em>Dead Reckoning <\/em>won&#8217;t have nearly as much competition for premium screens\u2014doubtless looks like a better bet to the team at Paramount. There&#8217;s a strong data point in support of that assumption: The highest-grossing Memorial Day opening of all time belongs to 2022&#8217;s <em>Top Gun: Maverick <\/em>($126.7M 3-day domestic opening, $718.7M domestic total), like <em>Dead Reckoning<\/em> a Tom Cruise-starring actioner with a strong nostalgia factor released by Paramount. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Mission: Impossible \u2013 The Final Reckoning | Official Trailer (2025 Movie) - Tom Cruise\" width=\"798\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/fsQgc9pCyDU?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" id=\"h-tracking-updates-as-of-april-25\">Tracking Updates [as of April 25]<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>5\/2<\/td><td><em><em>Thunderbolts*<\/em><\/em><\/td><td>$75M &#8211; $85M<\/td><td>Disney<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5\/9<\/td><td><em><em>Shadow Force<\/em><\/em><\/td><td>$2M &#8211; $4M<\/td><td>Lionsgate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5\/16<\/td><td><em><em>Final Destination: Bloodlines<\/em><\/em><\/td><td>$36M &#8211; $48M<\/td><td>Warner Bros.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5\/16<\/td><td><em>Hurry Up Tomorrow<\/em><\/td><td>$3M &#8211; $5M<\/td><td>Lionsgate<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Subscribe to our&nbsp;FREE&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news. Long Range Forecast \u2014 May 23, 2025 Mission: Impossible &#8211; The Final Reckoning | Paramount Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $70M \u2013 $80M (3-Day); $90M &#8211; $100M (4-Day) Ethan Hunt and company return to theaters over [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":38523,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,25],"tags":[5756],"class_list":["post-38504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasts-tracking","category-numbers","tag-mission-impossible-dead-reckoning"],"apple_news_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38504"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38504\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38504"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}