{"id":38584,"date":"2025-04-30T14:57:36","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T18:57:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=38584"},"modified":"2025-05-07T15:22:13","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T19:22:13","slug":"weekend-preview-thunderbolts-tracking-to-80m-opening-weekend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/weekend-preview-thunderbolts-tracking-to-80m-opening-weekend\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekend Preview: THUNDERBOLTS* Tracking to $80M Opening Weekend"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-boxoffice-podium\">The Boxoffice Podium<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-forecasting-the-top-3-movies-at-the-domestic-box-office-may-2-4-2025\">Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 2 \u2013 4, 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-week-18-may-2-4-2025\">Week 18 | May 2 \u2013 4, 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-thunderbolts-marvel-studios-new-weekend-range-80m-90m-showtime-marketshare-33\">1. <em>Thunderbolts*<\/em><br>Marvel Studios | NEW<br>Weekend Range: $80M \u2013 $90M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 33%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The anti-hero team-up movie <em>Thunderbolts*<\/em> arrives while the MCU is still on shaky ground after the less-than-stellar reception of <em>Captain America: Brave New World<\/em>, which opened to a solid $88.8M back in February but lost traction in the ensuing weeks to cap off its run at $200M domestic. Unlike <em>Brave New World<\/em>&#8216;s 48% critical rating, <em>Thunderbolts*<\/em> boasts an 88% aggregate on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rottentomatoes.com\/m\/thunderbolts\">Rotten Tomatoes<\/a>, which puts it on par with<em> Doctor Strange<\/em> (89%) and the middle two Captain America movies, <em>The Winter Soldier<\/em> and <em>Civil War<\/em> (both 90%). Of the MCU&#8217;s thirteen Phase 4 and 5 films, only <em>Shang-Chi<\/em> (92%) and <em>Spider-Man: No Way Home<\/em> (93%) have scored above 90% on RT. Our panel believes decent word-of-mouth, well-executed action set pieces, and more robust overall box office attendance will gift <em>Thunderbolts<\/em>* with a stronger theatrical run than <em>Brave New World<\/em>&#8230; even if the opening winds up being comparable. We expect an opening weekend in the low-to-mid $80M range, leaving room for the film to reach up to $90M in case word-of-mouth can spur ticket sales into Sunday. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It&#8217;s almost being charitable to call this a B-squad movie, since characters like Hannah John-Kamen&#8217;s Ghost or Wyatt Russell&#8217;s U.S. Agent have only been supporting players in more minor MCU offerings. Meanwhile, a bulk of the figures (Yelena Belova, Taskmaster, Red Guardian, Melina Vostokoff, Valentina) originated in 2021&#8217;s <em>Black Widow<\/em> which is one of the MCU&#8217;s lowest global grossers ($379.7M). You could argue that <em>Brave New World<\/em> had a stronger hand to play with fan favorite Anthony Mackie, plus the star power of Harrison Ford. However, Sebastian Stan&#8217;s Bucky Barnes has been with the MCU since 2011, and is a beloved figure among the fanbase. Florence Pugh&#8217;s super assassin Yelena has only made a couple of appearances, yet the actress herself has immense visibility from hits like <em>Oppenheimer<\/em> and <em>Dune: Part Two<\/em>. While Marvel has mined the more obscure corners of its comics universe to great success with films like\u00a0<em>Guardians of the Galaxy<\/em>,\u00a0<em>Thunderbolts<\/em>*\u00a0has neither the novelty nor the kid-friendly appeal of that brand. If the film fails to connect with audiences at the outset, we could see this weekend finishing in the $70 &#8211; $80M range over its opening weekend. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-sinners-warner-bros-week-3-weekend-range-16m-22m-showtime-marketshare-13\">2. <em>Sinners<\/em><br>Warner Bros. | Week 3<br>Weekend Range: $16M \u2013 $22M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 13%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nobody was expecting such a ferocious second frame for writer\/director Ryan Coogler&#8217;s <em>Sinners<\/em>, where it only made a -5% drop from opening weekend for $45.7M (up slightly from $45M Sunday estimates). That kind of hold hasn&#8217;t been seen in over 15 years, and never for an R-rated horror title. With that level of over-indexing we now expect this title to have a domestic theatrical life beyond $200M (currently $135.6M total), even as <em>Thunderbolts*<\/em> usurps the top spot and much of the ink being spilled. If <em>Sinners<\/em> once again goes beyond expectations in Frame 3, expect that to keep the movie in the conversation&#8230; Marvel or no Marvel. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>Thunderbolts*<\/em> is likely to make a big dent in <em>Sinners<\/em>&#8216; fender, especially when it takes over many of the IMAX auditoriums that were responsible for over 22% of Frame 2&#8217;s haul. There&#8217;s also the issue of foreign sales drastically below domestic, with only $39.79M from overseas markets. With a $90M budget plus prints &amp; advertising (literal pricy 35MM IMAX prints in this case), there could be a scenario where the movie barely eeks a profit for the studio even with killer North American numbers. Still, this is a title that&#8217;s already gone above and beyond what anyone expected, one that will have a long and lucrative shelf life for WB on PVOD and streaming. At $175.4M WW, the downside is negligible from here on out, and certainly none for theaters who continue to keep this one stocked.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-a-minecraft-movie-warner-bros-week-5-weekend-range-10m-14m-showtime-marketshare-12\">3. <em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em><br>Warner Bros. | Week 5<br>Weekend Range: $10M \u2013 $14M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 12%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WB&#8217;s other cash cow <em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em> continues to perform nicely into its fifth frame, steadily halving its grosses week-to-week&#8230; but when you come from a $162.75M opening that&#8217;s the kind of half-life theaters like. It took in $22.7M last weekend, and we&#8217;re looking at another drop in the -50% region, although it could be more if kids and teens flock to <em>Thunderbolts*<\/em> in droves. A new set of official <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/timlammers\/2025\/04\/28\/a-minecraft-movie-studio-urges-wild-behavior-at-block-party-screenings\/\">&#8220;Block Party Edition!&#8221;<\/a> screenings on May 2 which encourage wild behavior in theater auditoriums could drive a stronger hold this weekend. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Can it make a billion? That&#8217;s the only challenge <em>Minecraft <\/em>has to conquer before it enters the streaming sphere. Right now we&#8217;re at $817.5M globally. It took <em>Moana 2 <\/em>seven frames to cross the big B mark, while <em>The Super Mario Bros. Movie<\/em> did it in about four and <em>Barbie<\/em> took only three frames to crack $1 billion. The good news is -unlike <em>Sinners<\/em>&#8211; international has done even better than domestic, translating to $435M overseas vs $382.5M in North America. Frame 4 those markets did almost double ($38.1M) what the movie did here, so the short answer is yes, we&#8217;re probably looking at a billion, but it might take longer than <em>Moana 2<\/em> and could require the studio to keep the movie in theaters past demand&#8230; if it&#8217;s worth the bragging rights. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Boxoffice Podium Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 2 \u2013 4, 2025 Week 18 | May 2 \u2013 4, 2025 1. Thunderbolts*Marvel Studios | NEWWeekend Range: $80M \u2013 $90MShowtime Marketshare: 33% Pros Cons 2. SinnersWarner Bros. | Week 3Weekend Range: $16M \u2013 $22MShowtime Marketshare: 13% Pros Cons 3. 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