{"id":38688,"date":"2025-05-07T15:20:06","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T19:20:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=38688"},"modified":"2025-05-14T14:04:37","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T18:04:37","slug":"weekend-preview-thunderbolts-debuts-new-title-expected-to-hold-top-spot-at-the-box-office","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/weekend-preview-thunderbolts-debuts-new-title-expected-to-hold-top-spot-at-the-box-office\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekend Preview: THUNDERBOLTS Debuts New Title, Expected to Hold Top Spot at the Box Office"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-boxoffice-podium\">The Boxoffice Podium<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-forecasting-the-top-3-movies-at-the-domestic-box-office-may-9-11-2025\">Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 9 \u2013 11, 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-week-19-may-9-11-2025\">Week 19 | May 9 \u2013 11, 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-nbsp-the-new-avengers-previously-known-as-thunderbolts-marvel-studios-week-2-weekend-range-34m-40m-showtime-marketshare-24\">1.&nbsp;The New Avengers (Previously Known as <em>Thunderbolts*<\/em>)<br>Marvel Studios | Week 2<br>Weekend Range: $34M \u2013 $40M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 24%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Other studios decided to steer clear of the second weekend of Marvel Studios&#8217; <em>Thunderbolts*<\/em>, now apparently re-titled as <em>The New Avengers<\/em>, paving the way for an easy win. Our prediction panel is looking towards a maximum -50% drop for this second frame, nothing like the -68% tumble ($28.17M) <em>Captain America: Brave New World<\/em> experienced during its sophomore outing earlier this year. Our north star is 2021&#8217;s <em>Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings<\/em>, which pulled in $34.7M (-54%) during its second weekend before ultimately totaling $224.5M domestically. Like<em> Thunderbolts*<\/em>, <em>Shang-Chi<\/em> relied less on established Marvel heroes and more on big action and humor to sell itself in the marketplace.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Unfortunately, the Sunday estimates ($76M) for the film saw a near $2M decrease for Monday actuals ($74.3M), putting this below <em>Shang-Chi<\/em>&#8216;s $75.3M opening four years ago. As we stated <a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/weekend-box-office-thunderbolts-takes-76m-domestic-debut\/\">on Sunday<\/a>, this is still in the same ballpark as 2018&#8217;s pre-pandemic opening of <em>Ant-Man and the Wasp<\/em> ($75.8M opening\/$216.6M domestic), another B-entry in the storied MCU franchise. <em>Thunderbolts*<\/em> is riding a wave of decent reviews and solid word of mouth (plus all that <a href=\"https:\/\/variety.com\/2025\/film\/news\/thunderbolts-poster-the-new-avengers-title-change-1236386731\/\">&#8220;New Avengers&#8221; title marketing<\/a>) going into Frame 2, yet it&#8217;s painfully clear that another studio could have stolen its thunder with a wide release this weekend. While <em>Fantastic Four: First Steps<\/em> is also being given a wide berth by rival studios during its summer opening frame, that may change with future solo\/non-Avengers movies as Marvel continues to show box office vulnerability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-nbsp-sinners-warner-bros-week-4-weekend-range-17m-22m-showtime-marketshare-14\">2.&nbsp;<em>Sinners<\/em><br>Warner Bros. | Week 4<br>Weekend Range: $17M \u2013 $22M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 14%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We have managed to underestimate WB&#8217;s original R-rated horror smash <em>Sinners<\/em> for the past three weekends as it over-performed beyond the beyond, including $33.1M this past frame for a measly -28% drop. We&#8217;ve learned our lesson, hence our prediction for Week 4 is nearly identical to our Week 3 forecast ($16M &#8211; $22M), especially since there&#8217;s no big new wide release, plus <em>Thunderbolts*<\/em> has a different demo pull. Domestic is currently at $182.9M along with $240.4M globally, which means this title will almost certainly go above $300M WW&#8230; well into the realm of profitability for Warner Bros.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Without question, New Line&#8217;s<em> Final Destination Bloodlines<\/em> will commandeer the <em>Sinners<\/em> audience next frame, and that will likely signal a &#8220;beginning of the end&#8221; drop-off. In terms of any threats to <em>Sinners<\/em>&#8216; status as the #1 horror movie of the year, there are some big guns coming with <em>Predator: Badlands<\/em>, <em>The Conjuring: Last Rites<\/em>, and even the original <em>Weapons<\/em>, but only <em>Five Nights at Freddy&#8217;s 2<\/em> has a plausible shot at unseating Ryan Coogler&#8217;s phenomenon.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-nbsp-a-minecraft-movie-warner-bros-week-6-weekend-range-6m-9m-showtime-marketshare-11\">3.&nbsp;<em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em><br>Warner Bros. | Week 6<br>Weekend Range: $6M \u2013 $9M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 11%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>A Minecraft Movie <\/em>will continue to ride that chicken all the way to the bank, having posted its lowest drop yet in Frame 5 with $13.7M (-40%). It&#8217;s looking likely that the drop will be below -50% in Frame 6 as the movie continues to rack up points. The video game adaptation is about to cross the $400M mark stateside, while globally the tally stands at $875.27M. It will get another life extension next week with zero competition in the family sphere. It currently stands firmly as the #2 game movie of all-time (domestic and WW), though with no danger of unseating champ <em>The Super Mario Bros. Movie<\/em>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-lilo-stitch\/\">However, the block party for <em>A Minecraft Movie<\/em> officially ends during the Memorial Day frame when Disney&#8217;s live-action <em>Lilo &amp; Stitch<\/em> will absolutely destroy. Early tracking says that cuddly alien movie is headed for a $100M+ debut,<\/a> with many handicappers saying it could rule the summer the way Disney&#8217;s <em>Inside Out 2<\/em> did last year. Still, <em>Minecraft<\/em> continues to print money in theaters and will likely have a shelf life well into June, even with rumors of a digital release next week.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Boxoffice Podium Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 9 \u2013 11, 2025 Week 19 | May 9 \u2013 11, 2025 1.&nbsp;The New Avengers (Previously Known as Thunderbolts*)Marvel Studios | Week 2Weekend Range: $34M \u2013 $40MShowtime Marketshare: 24% Pros Cons 2.&nbsp;SinnersWarner Bros. | Week 4Weekend Range: $17M \u2013 $22MShowtime [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":38658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[5705,5727,5731],"class_list":["post-38688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasts-tracking","tag-a-minecraft-movie","tag-sinners","tag-thunderbolts-2"],"apple_news_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38688\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}