{"id":38982,"date":"2025-05-30T11:47:04","date_gmt":"2025-05-30T15:47:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=38982"},"modified":"2025-05-30T14:13:32","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T18:13:32","slug":"long-range-forecast-pixar-brings-their-latest-story-to-theaters-with-elio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/long-range-forecast-pixar-brings-their-latest-story-to-theaters-with-elio\/","title":{"rendered":"Long Range Forecast: Pixar Brings Their Latest Story to Theaters with ELIO"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/subscribe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe to our&nbsp;<strong><em>FREE<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"A Record Memorial Day Frame | KARATE KID: LEGENDS Director Jonathan Entwistle\" width=\"100%\" height=\"180\" frameborder=\"no\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/e\/451a11ee#?secret=aCxu6oPHVo\" data-secret=\"aCxu6oPHVo\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-long-range-forecast-june-20-2025\">Long Range Forecast \u2014 June 20, 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-elio-disney-pixar\"><em>Elio<\/em> | Disney\/Pixar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-domestic-opening-weekend-range-35m-45m\">Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $35M \u2013 $45M<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Now that Pixar has bounced back in the market with <em>Inside Out 2<\/em>, the next big test comes with the performance of this new original over their traditional mid-summer slot. Forecasting <em>Elio<\/em>&#8216;s box office based on the performance of other Pixar films not based on pre-existing IP is complicated by the fact that three of the last seven titles in that category\u20142020&#8217;s <em>Soul<\/em>, 2021&#8217;s <em>Luca<\/em>, and 2022&#8217;s <em>Turning Red<\/em>\u2014bypassed theaters in favor of a streaming debut on Disney+, and another (2020&#8217;s Onward) got only one week in theaters before Covid brought the domestic film industry to a screeching halt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That leaves as points of comparison 2015&#8217;s<em> The Good Dinosaur<\/em>, 2017&#8217;s <em>Coco<\/em>, 2020&#8217;s <em>Onward<\/em>, and 2023&#8217;s <em>Elemental<\/em> as points of comparison from the last decade. Our opening weekend range puts <em>Elio<\/em>&#8216;s opening in the neighborhood of the $39.1M grossed by <em>Onward<\/em> on its opening weekend, the only weekend it would have in theaters before Covid brought the industry to a screeching halt. (<em>Onward<\/em> got a second weekend in theaters\u2014earning $10.6M, a drop of approximately 73 percent\u2014but by that time much of the industry had already shut down.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Elemental<\/em>, the last decade&#8217;s only original-IP Disney\/Pixar film with a June release date (<em>The Good Dinosaur <\/em>and <em>Coco<\/em> were both Thanksgiving releases), is also Pixar&#8217;s lowest domestic opener, coming in at $29.6M. Buoyed by strong holds, <em>Elemental<\/em> would make up some ground in chase weeks, eventually outgrossing both <em>The Good Dinosaur <\/em>($39.1M three-day opening, $123M domestic total) and June 2022&#8217;s <em>Lightyear<\/em> ($50.7M domestic opening, $118.9M domestic total) with $154.4M domestic. Positive word-of-mouth for <em>Elio<\/em>, should it develop, could help make up for a potential soft opening, though it will have to compete with fellow animated family titles <em>Smurfs<\/em> (7\/18, Paramount) and <em>The Bad Guys 2<\/em> (8\/1, Universal).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking outside Disney\/Pixar, the only other original-IP animated June release from the last decade is (the barely marketed)<em> Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken <\/em>($5.5M domestic opening, $15.7M domestic total.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"ELIO Final Trailer (2025) Pixar\" width=\"798\" height=\"449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Svy6PN9rCII?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" id=\"h-tracking-updates-as-of-june-3\">Tracking Updates [as of June 3]<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>5\/30<\/td><td><em>Karate Kid: Legends<\/em><\/td><td>$28M &#8211; $35M<\/td><td>Sony \/ Columbia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5\/30<\/td><td><em>Bring Her Back<\/em><\/td><td>$5M &#8211; $6M<\/td><td>A24<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6\/6<\/td><td><em>From the World of John Wick: Ballerina<\/em><\/td><td>$30M &#8211; $40M<\/td><td>Lionsgate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6\/13<\/td><td>How to Train Your Dragon<\/td><td>$80M &#8211; $100M<\/td><td>Universal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6\/13<\/td><td>The Materialists<\/td><td>$8M &#8211; $12M<\/td><td>A24<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Subscribe to our&nbsp;FREE&nbsp;email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news. Long Range Forecast \u2014 June 20, 2025 Elio | Disney\/Pixar Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $35M \u2013 $45M Now that Pixar has bounced back in the market with Inside Out 2, the next big test comes [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":39035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"apple_news_api_created_at":"2025-05-30T15:47:20Z","apple_news_api_id":"f1307cb2-654d-46af-b9e9-0df676e1127b","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2025-05-30T18:13:29Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAQ==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/A8TB8smVNRq-56Q32duESew","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":["https:\/\/news-api.apple.com\/sections\/dfac7ee9-acf9-449e-b214-8115882b64d6"],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[4878,120],"class_list":["post-38982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasts-tracking","tag-elio","tag-pixar"],"apple_news_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38982\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}