{"id":38995,"date":"2025-05-28T16:41:59","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T20:41:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/?p=38995"},"modified":"2025-05-28T16:43:41","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T20:43:41","slug":"weekend-preview-lilo-stitch-pacing-for-another-top-finish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/weekend-preview-lilo-stitch-pacing-for-another-top-finish\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekend Preview: LILO &amp; STITCH Pacing for Another Top Finish"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-boxoffice-podium\">The Boxoffice Podium<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-forecasting-the-top-3-movies-at-the-domestic-box-office-may-30-june-1-2025\">Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 30 \u2013 June 1, 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-week-22-may-30-june-1-2025\">Week 22 | May 30 \u2013 June 1, 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-lilo-amp-stitch-walt-disney-pictures-week-2-weekend-range-55m-65m-showtime-marketshare-29\">1. <em>Lilo &amp; Stitch<\/em><br>Walt Disney Pictures | Week 2<br>Weekend Range: $55M \u2013 $65M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 29%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Exhibitors are still basking in the afterglow of the biggest Memorial Day weekend ever powered by Disney&#8217;s <em>Lilo &amp; Stitch<\/em> redo, which brought in $146M for the 3-Day and a Top Gun-smashing $182.6M record 4-Day. Our panel is predicting a drop over -50% this go-round, but the pull for this one is still mighty, especially since nearly half of US schools will be dismissed. Global tally stands at $361.1M and will crack half-a-billion handily before Sunday. <span style=\"margin: 0px;padding: 0px\">The domestic total as of now is actually ahead of&nbsp;<em>Inside Out 2<\/em>&nbsp;at this point ($176.6M), although<\/span> that one didn&#8217;t have a holiday Monday. If you&#8217;re still wondering where all the <em>Lilo &amp; Stitch<\/em> fever came from, what was once regarded as a second-tier catalogue title (along with associated content\/sequel\/animated series) accounted for 546 million hours of eyeball time on Disney+, equal to a marquee IP like <em>The Little Mermaid<\/em>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>There&#8217;s very little downside to Disney&#8217;s marketing win on <em>Lilo &amp; Stitch<\/em>, which not only translated to a big box office but also a huge multi-billion-dollar merchandising blitz that was already in full swing on opening day. The trouble here is an overall drought of winning children&#8217;s titles at the multiplex, which we&#8217;ve been feeling since last year when Wonka and Migration played well past their expiration date due to demand. Much of kids content has pivoted to streaming, even though 6 out of 10 of last year&#8217;s top worldwide earners were children&#8217;s films. Parents want to take their kids to the movies, period. As reported by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/media\/disney-lilo-stitch-box-office-85df78bd?st=i4ath3&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink\">The Wall Street Journal&nbsp;<\/a>this week, both&nbsp;<em>Lilo &amp; Stitch<\/em>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<em>Moana 2<\/em>&nbsp;were originally eyed for streaming. Hopefully, these pivots back to theatrical releases&nbsp;will mean more variety during future summer months. We still have <em>How to Train Your Dragon<\/em>, <em>Elio<\/em>, <em>The Bad Guys 2<\/em>, and <em>Smurfs<\/em> through August, but there&#8217;s room for a lot more.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-karate-kid-legends-sony-pictures-new-weekend-range-25m-35m-showtime-marketshare-15\">2. <em>Karate Kid: Legends<\/em><br>Sony Pictures | NEW<br>Weekend Range: $25M \u2013 $35M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 15%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Who would have thought that fellow <em>The Outsiders<\/em> cast members would still be duking it out at the box office four decades later? Granted, a Tom Cruise\/Ralph Macchio battle may not seem fair, yet our panel gives <em>Karate Kid: Legends<\/em> the edge over <em>Mission: Impossible<\/em> for the #2 spot going into this frame. A tight race between two storied franchises, yes, but the massive streaming following of Macchio&#8217;s Karate Kid spin-off series <em>Cobra Kai<\/em> combined with that Jackie Chan reboot energy makes <em>Legends<\/em> feels more Zoomer-friendly than the older-skewing M:I. Critics are roughing the movie up at a current <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rottentomatoes.com\/m\/karate_kid_legends\">53% on RT<\/a>, though <a href=\"https:\/\/movieweb.com\/karate-kid-legends-first-reactions-jackie-chan-ralph-macchio\/\">early social reactions<\/a> leaned more mixed\/positive. This one is definitely for the fans, both old and new, but will it satisfy any trying to please all?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ralph Macchio returning to his iconic role of Daniel LaRusso may have been more of an event if he hadn&#8217;t just spent seven years reprising the Karate Kid character on TV&#8217;s <em>Cobra Kai<\/em>. Meanwhile, Jackie Chan is still a global icon&#8230; albeit one who hasn&#8217;t had a major live-action stateside hit since he last played Mr. Han in 2010&#8217;s <em>The Karate Kid<\/em> ($176.59M domestic\/$351.77M WW). Is this savvy synergy to connect the reboot with original recipe? Said reboot&#8217;s lukewarm audience reaction didn&#8217;t seem to warrant a sequel until Cobra Kai made it viable again. However, let&#8217;s not forget the original film series had a short blaze of glory with the initial 1984 classic ($90.8M), peaked with Part II ($115.1M), collapsed with Part III ($38.79M), then threw dirt on the body with cynical recast <em>The Next Karate Kid <\/em>($8.75M). It will be a test of Sony marketing if they can truly squeeze nostalgia-tinged blood from a stone the way they did with Ghostbusters recently. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-paramount-pictures-week-2-weekend-range-25m-32m-showtime-marketshare-18\">3. <em>Mission: Impossible \u2013 The Final Reckoning<\/em><br>Paramount Pictures | Week 2<br>Weekend Range: $25M \u2013 $32M<br>Showtime Marketshare: 18%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pros<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tom Cruise rode that biplane to a franchise-best $64M 3-Day opening ($1M over <a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/weekend-box-office-lilo-stitch-leads-record-memorial-day-frame\/\">Sunday estimates<\/a>), and over $80M racked up so far on the domestic front. With big IMAX numbers and positive audience reactions to some old-time Hollywood spectacle, <em>Mission: Impossible \u2013 The Final Reckoning<\/em> is a major summer boost for theaters no matter how the profit margins ultimately play out. This is a movie built to serve a global audience, which it will continue to do beautifully well into the sunny season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Cons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>Karate Kid Legends <\/em>just might sweep the leg on the final Mission for second place this weekend, but we&#8217;re expecting a close race. The film&#8217;s running time, which pushes three hours, doesn&#8217;t help its showtime market share, which is the primary reason why we have it finishing third in its sophomore frame. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Boxoffice Podium Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 30 \u2013 June 1, 2025 Week 22 | May 30 \u2013 June 1, 2025 1. Lilo &amp; StitchWalt Disney Pictures | Week 2Weekend Range: $55M \u2013 $65MShowtime Marketshare: 29% Pros Cons 2. Karate Kid: LegendsSony Pictures | NEWWeekend Range: $25M [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":38932,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[5755,5664,5639],"class_list":["post-38995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forecasts-tracking","tag-karate-kid-legends","tag-lilo-stitch","tag-mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning"],"apple_news_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38995"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38995\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38932"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.boxofficepro.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}